Seven Ethiopian armed and political movements announced on Sunday that they had formed the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, a coalition that says it will coordinate against Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s Prosperity Party government and work toward an inclusive transitional administration. The grouping brings together Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leaders, Amhara Fano factions, the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) and four smaller regional movements whose histories often collide on territory and power.
Who signed and what they claim
In a joint statement published Saturday and circulated widely on Sunday, the alliance listed the Amhara Fano National Movement, Oromo Liberation Army, TPLF, Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF), Afar Revolutionary Democratic Unity Front, Benishangul Peoples’ Liberation Movement and Gumuz Peoples’ Democratic Movement. The document accuses Abiy’s government of “dictatorial rule,” displacement and economic collapse, and says members will resolve differences peacefully while pursuing a charter-guided transition.
TPLF vice president Amanuel Assefa told AFP on Sunday that the groups had been talking for more than a year and that Fano leader Zemene Kasse would chair the alliance. Al Jazeera, citing a source close to the talks, said leaders framed the pact as a procedural consensus to widen political space rather than a single unified military command—an important distinction for diplomats who still remember the 2020–2022 Tigray war that the African Union says killed hundreds of thousands.
Why the timing alarms Addis Ababa
The announcement lands as federal and Tigrayan forces have massed along the northern border in recent months, according to African Union monitoring, reviving fears of renewed fighting after a 2022 cessation-of-hostilities deal. Abiy came to office in 2018 promising reforms and prisoner releases; his government has since battled Fano militias in Amhara, the OLA in Oromia and sporadic flare-ups with Tigrayan commanders who dispute disarmament timelines.
Ethiopian academic Eyob Tilahun told Al Jazeera the competing groups had agreed to dialogue “in the best interests of the public,” but the statement leaves open how movements with rival territorial claims would share power in any transitional council. Somalia Today noted that ONLF’s participation is symbolically significant because the Somali-region movement signed a peace deal with Addis Ababa in 2018 and later pursued politics through ballots rather than guns.
What a transition would mean—on paper
The alliance says a post-Abiy charter would end active wars, protect rights and convene national dialogue. It does not publish a sequencing calendar, election date or security arrangement for federal institutions. For investors and aid agencies, the knowable set is political: seven signatures on one letter, public appeals to Ethiopians and civil servants, and a chair named from the Fano camp.
What is not yet knowable is whether the federal military treats the alliance as a negotiating partner or as a collection of outlawed groups. Abiy’s office had not issued a detailed response in the sources cited here by Sunday evening Addis Ababa time. Regional capitals watching the Horn will read Sunday’s statement alongside troop movements in Tigray and Amhara, not as a standalone press release.
Neighborhood stakes
Neighboring states that depend on Ethiopian stability—Djibouti’s port corridor, Sudan’s refugee flows, Kenya’s trade routes—have little margin for another full-scale war. Diplomats at the African Union headquarters in Addis Ababa have urged de-escalation along the Tigray border even as this coalition went public. For readers tracking risk, the bulletin’s spine is simple: seven groups that have often fought one another now share a name, a chair and a stated goal of removing Abiy; whether that becomes coordinated offensives or a bargaining table is the next question officials cannot yet answer from open sources.
