Australia's four largest lenders have stopped debating whether the Reserve Bank will move again and started arguing about how many times. After a week in which Westpac and Commonwealth Bank brought forward their calls for a September hike, National Australia Bank was no longer alone in expecting action at the 28–29 September board meeting. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group went further, becoming the first major to forecast back-to-back increases that would lift the cash rate from 4.35 percent toward 4.60 percent and then higher still in November.
How the majors converged
Until Friday, the split was familiar: NAB had been the outlier calling September while ANZ, CBA and Westpac pointed to November. Broker industry publication Australian Broker reported that Westpac's shift on Friday, followed quickly by CBA, left all four aligned on a move this month. Markets had already been leaning that way after Governor Michele Bullock told the House of Representatives economics committee that upside inflation risks were materialising faster than the board hoped in August.
ANZ's economics team kept its November call but added September, making it the first of the majors to pencil in consecutive hikes. That matters inside ANZ's own treasury and retail bank, where product repricing teams model funding costs off the official curve. A second move within six weeks would compress the window for mortgage brokers to refinance clients before Christmas—a operational detail that rarely makes headlines but drives branch targets.
What Bullock and Hauser told Canberra
At the 18 September hearing, Bullock said the board would need to judge whether tightening so far this year—75 basis points across three moves—was enough to return inflation to the 2–3 percent target band. Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser added a longer-run frame, suggesting global real interest rates may be settling at levels that look normal compared with the post-financial-crisis era. ABC's coverage noted economists interpreting those remarks as a green light for another hike, with swaps pricing a September increase near certainty.
The RBA's own opening statement reminded MPs that accountability hearings are part of the bank's post-reform transparency mandate. For ANZ's institutional clients, the signal was less about rhetoric and more about timing: if the cash rate reaches 4.60 percent, variable home loan floors that were set when 4.35 percent felt punitive will need another pass.
Inside the ANZ decision
From ANZ's perspective as both forecaster and lender, back-to-back hikes are a portfolio call. The bank earns net interest margin when funding costs lag the cash rate, but it also wears credit risk if households buckle. Australian Broker quoted Tasmanian broker Emmanuel Marios saying the industry task is to educate borrowers rather than panic—sentiment brokers share with ANZ's own financial wellbeing units.
Macquarie Bank, often grouped with the majors in broker surveys, had already expected multiple hikes before year end; the surprise was synchronisation, not direction. Traders on the ASX 200 were still digesting higher bond yields when bank economists published their updates, which is why equity futures and rate expectations moved in tandem through Sunday night.
What happens before the board meets
The board still has a full data slate: labour force, partial inflation reads, and global energy prices that have whipsawed on Middle East headlines. None of the majors is calling cuts; the argument is whether one hike finishes the job or whether ANZ's November follow-up is required. For households, the practical question is when their lender passes through the next 25 basis points—usually within days of an RBA announcement.
ANZ's distinction as the first major to forecast consecutive moves does not guarantee the board will comply. It does, however, show how quickly Canberra testimony can reset the entire Big Four curve. When every major expects tighter settings in the same month, the surprise is no longer whether rates rise—it is whether borrowers get a pause before Christmas. Bond desks will be watching the September labour print as closely as mortgage brokers watch their pipeline.
