Westpac has joined Commonwealth Bank, ANZ and NAB in pencilling a 25 basis point lift in the Reserve Bank's cash rate at the 28–29 September board, leaving all four major bank economics desks on a 4.60% benchmark ahead of the 2:30pm AEST decision on Tuesday.

Westpac was the last of the four to move, and it moved without full internal agreement — the call landed as a hike with the split left visible. The other three had already flipped after governor Michele Bullock's CEDA appearance on 22 September, where the emphasis stayed on a labour market that has not loosened as quickly as the pause camp needed it to. For the four banks, this is the same decision each of them publishes every cycle: what the board does next, and what that does to the funding costs their business customers are already paying.

Four desks, one number

The published forecasts now converge on 4.60%. The cash rate has held at 4.35% since 12 August, and the board's next scheduled decision is 29 September. A 25 basis point increase would be the first change to the benchmark in six weeks that has tested every treasurer's interest coverage modelling in the country.

The revision that matters most for borrowers is CBA's. The desk has pushed its first cut to August 2027, which places the start of any easing cycle in the 2027–28 financial year. That is a materially different world from the one many mid-sized firms budgeted against earlier this year, when relief inside the current year was still the base case. A company rolling a facility in the next two quarters now prices it against a benchmark that stays higher for longer, and against a bank that has told the market so in writing.

What Bullock changed

Banks do not flip on tone alone. They flip when the tone removes the argument they were relying on. Bullock used the CEDA platform to keep upside risks in view, with employment conditions still tight enough that the board cannot treat the inflation problem as closed. That was enough to move the three desks that had been arguing for patience, and enough to leave the fourth with a vote it could not fully resolve internally.

The practical effect is a market that has lost its dissent. When all four majors publish the same number, the surprise risk sits almost entirely on the other side of the decision — and positioning ahead of it becomes about size and language rather than direction.

The labour data cuts both ways

The August labour force release on 24 September did not settle the argument. The unemployment rate came in at 4.6%, participation held at 67.1%, and the economy added 39,500 jobs. Underneath that headline, full-time employment fell by 6,300 — a composition the RBA has learned to read carefully, because heads added through part-time work are not the same signal as a strengthening full-time market. For a board watching spare capacity, the mix keeps the upside risk alive even as the headline softens.

What the desks are pricing

Market pricing has done most of the work already, sitting near 90% for a 25 basis point move. Friday's session carried that mood into the weekend: the ASX 200 closed down 37.02 points, or 0.43%, at 8,665.00, with information technology the weakest sector at −1.66%. Xero fell 2.81% to $57.36, its lowest since May 2019, and WiseTech slipped 2.25% to $31.33.

The currency barely moved, with AUD/USD at 0.7023, while crude sat at US$105.18 — a level that keeps input costs for transport, farming and construction in the same conversation as the interest bill. Diesel and freight costs are the second half of the squeeze for a lot of firms, and neither of them shows up in the cash rate print.

For boards, the decision on Tuesday is not the whole question. What the major banks have just told their clients is that the cost of money stays at or above 4.60% well into next year, and that the lending decisions built on the old assumption need revisiting before the statement drops.