Finder’s September expert panel has voted with its mortgage calculators. Of 41 economists and mortgage brokers surveyed by the comparison group, 37 — about 90 per cent — expect the Reserve Bank board to lift the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent when it announces its decision at 2.30pm AEST on Tuesday.
The board meets on Monday and Tuesday. The cash rate has sat at 4.35 per cent, and the September survey marks a sharp consolidation of market opinion. The four dissenters are now a footnote; the question for borrowers is no longer whether the RBA moves this month, but how many times it moves before 2027.
The same Finder survey found 48 per cent of respondents expect the cash rate to reach 4.85 per cent by the end of the year — a second increase before 2027. Finder estimates two hikes would add about $540 a month to repayments on a typical mortgage. That is the household arithmetic behind the board’s decision.
The board room versus the panel
Finder’s panel is not the RBA board. It is a sample of professional opinion, assembled and published on September 26. Its value lies in what it says about the consensus the board now faces. When 37 of 41 experts expect a hike, an RBA that holds would be delivering a genuine surprise.
The macro data support the hawkish read. The ABS reported the unemployment rate rose to 4.6 per cent in August, with full-time employment down 6,300 and participation at 67.1 per cent. A softer labour market would normally argue for patience. But the panel’s near-unanimous call suggests the RBA’s inflation mandate is still dominant, and that a single month of labour-market cooling is not enough to change the board’s course.
Governor Michele Bullock’s appearance at CEDA earlier this month is part of the backdrop. The ABC reported that her comments, combined with shifting calls from the major banks, flipped the market toward a September increase. That is the institutional signal the board sends: not just a rate, but a reaction function. If Bullock and her colleagues hike on Tuesday, they will be confirming that the RBA is willing to lean against a softening jobs market to protect its inflation credibility.
What the decision means for Australian companies
For the banks, a hike reprices the variable-rate book. Lenders will adjust standard variable rates, and depositors may see term deposit offers improve as competition for funding intensifies. For retailers, builders and highly geared small businesses, the hit is more immediate: higher debt-servicing costs arrive before any offsetting fall in input prices. The Australian share market already showed its sensitivity on Friday, with the ASX 200 closing at 8,665, down 0.43 per cent. Information technology stocks were weak, and wealth platforms came under pressure alongside global tech.
For households, the Finder survey crystallises the risk. A single hike to 4.60 per cent would raise repayments again. A second move to 4.85 per cent would make the cumulative tightening one of the sharpest in recent memory. The panel’s 48 per cent second-hike expectation is not a forecast set in stone, but it is a warning that the RBA’s tightening cycle may not end on Tuesday.
The board’s statement, due at 2.30pm AEST on September 29, will be parsed for two things: the vote itself and the language around future moves. If the RBA hikes and retains a hawkish bias, mortgage holders should plan for the 4.85 per cent scenario. If it hikes but softens its guidance, the second move becomes a live debate rather than a base case.
Either way, the September Finder panel has done what such surveys do best: it has turned dispersed professional opinion into a single, uncomfortable number for anyone with a variable-rate loan. The RBA board will now decide whether to validate it.