HDB’s flash estimate for the third quarter puts the Resale Price Index at 202.4, a 0.2 per cent dip from the second quarter’s 202.8 — the third consecutive quarterly decline after prices were flat in the final quarter of 2025.
The Housing and Development Board released the figure on Thursday, 1 October, ahead of the full third-quarter statistics. Resale prices fell 0.1 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 and 0.3 per cent in the second, reversing the 0.4 per cent rise recorded in the third quarter of 2025. National Development Minister Chee Hong Tat had removed the 15-month wait-out period for private property owners buying HDB resale flats on 28 July, arguing that market conditions had cooled enough for the rule to have done its job.
Volume holds as prices soften
HDB said resale transaction volumes remained “broadly stable” despite the continued price slide. The board also said it had not seen a significant jump in either prices or the number of resale flats bought by private homeowners and former private owners since the wait-out rule ended. That matters politically because opposition MPs had warned that lifting the restriction could reignite competition for limited resale stock in mature towns.
For households already in the queue for subsidised housing, the softer resale tape arrives as attention shifts to the delayed November Build-to-Order exercise. HDB will launch about 7,960 flats across Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun after raising the household income ceiling to S$16,000 for families and S$8,000 for eligible singles at the National Day Rally. The exercise was pushed from October to November so buyers could obtain new HDB Flat Eligibility letters under the higher limits.
What ministers will watch next
In its statement, HDB repeated that the macroeconomic outlook — including global and domestic interest rates — remains uncertain. It advised buyers to exercise prudence on mortgage loans and said the government would continue monitoring the market. With the index still well above pre-pandemic levels, the policy question is not whether prices have crashed but whether the combination of more BTO supply, softer resale growth and easier access for some upgraders keeps the market on a gradual easing path without a disorderly drop.
Analysts quoted by local media have generally treated the income-ceiling increase as a demand booster for November BTO rather than a shock to resale prices, though some expect higher-income first-timers to weigh subsidised flats against resale options. Parliament does not vote on flash estimates, but the numbers set the backdrop for November’s supply launch and any further tweaks to cooling measures if resale volumes spike while prices keep drifting down.
Mortgage stress tests still bind buyers
Even with softer resale growth, loan quantums remain sensitive to interest rates. Banks continue to apply Total Debt Servicing Ratio and Mortgage Servicing Ratio tests that use stressed rates above current packages. A household upgrading from a four-room flat in Tampines to a five-room in Bedok still needs to show income headroom, not just equity from a sale. HDB’s repeated caution on macro uncertainty is aimed at these marginal buyers who might stretch for a larger flat if they read three quarters of small declines as a green light.
Agents in mature towns report that cash-over-valuation requests have become more negotiable compared with 2024, when multiple-offer scenes were common. That aligns with the index trajectory but does not mean every seller accepts the first bid. Lease decay on older blocks remains a pricing wedge: flats with fewer than 60 years left on the lease trade at sharper discounts regardless of the headline index.
Town councils and MPs fielding resident clinics ahead of the November BTO launch say the most frequent question is whether to sell now or wait for ballot results. Policy makers do not answer that directly, but the flash estimate gives them evidence that the resale market is cooling gradually rather than freezing — a distinction that matters when calibrating additional supply from the 19,600 flats HDB pledged to launch in 2026.