The Nifty 50 printed 22,421.95 at Thursday’s close, capping an eight-week slide that traders describe as the longest weekly losing run for India’s headline gauge in roughly 25 years, as foreign portfolio investors kept selling and Brent crude hovered near $99.
The Sensex finished at 71,909.70 the same day, down 2.69 percent over the week. Across the eight weeks, the Nifty has surrendered more than 8.5 percent, a drawdown that stands out against a year when domestic mutual funds had been steady buyers on many dips. This time, the selling has been persistent enough that strategists are warning clients to treat the RBI’s October meeting as a volatility event rather than a routine policy appointment.
Flows and global rates
Foreign portfolio investors have been net sellers through much of the streak, pressured by higher U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Domestic institutions stepped in on several sessions, but not with the size needed to offset overseas outflows. Traders said index heavyweights in financials and energy bore the brunt, while pockets of domestic consumption names held up only briefly before succumbing to the broader risk-off tone.
Markets were closed on 2 October for Gandhi Jayanti, leaving investors with little chance to reposition before the MPC blackout period. That pause exaggerated the sense of drift: when the Nifty last closed, it did so on a down day, with no immediate domestic session to absorb overnight global moves.
Oil and the rupee channel
Brent’s climb toward $100 has revived imported inflation fears, complicating the RBI’s neutral stance. Energy importers mark-to-market higher input costs quickly, and airlines, paint makers and logistics firms have already flagged margin pressure in exchange filings. A weaker rupee amplifies the effect, which is why reserve data showing an $18.34 billion weekly drop drew attention even on a holiday weekend.
Banking analysts said a 25-basis-point rate hike, if delivered, could lift net interest margins for lenders with floating-rate books but might compress valuations for rate-sensitive real estate and auto finance names. Asset managers are telling clients to expect dispersion: companies with pricing power and modest debt loads may outperform even if the index struggles to find a floor.
What would break the streak
A calm MPC statement paired with stable crude would help, but few desks are betting on a V-shaped rebound. Earnings season, which begins in earnest in October, will test whether profit growth can justify valuations after the correction. Until foreign selling eases, the Nifty’s path may be dictated as much by offshore fund flows as by domestic policy—a uncomfortable place for a market that entered the year expecting India to decouple from global turbulence.