Hurricane Simon strengthened into a Category 4 storm on Saturday as Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a central pressure of 932 millibars and sustained winds near 150 mph, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. The eye was roughly 100 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving north at only about 5 mph — a crawl that gives coastal Jalisco and Colima little time to finish evacuations before conditions deteriorate overnight.
What forecasters see on the track
Advisory 14, issued at 3 p.m. Central Time, placed Simon at 17.6 degrees north and 104.8 degrees west. The NHC said the cyclone had resumed a slow northward motion after drifting earlier in the day and is expected to approach or move just inland along Mexico’s west-central coast on Sunday before pushing farther inland Monday.
Hurricane warnings were in effect from Punta San Telmo to El Roblito, including the Islas Marías, with a tropical storm watch eastward toward Lázaro Cárdenas. A warning typically means hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours; Mexican authorities and the NHC both stressed that preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion Saturday afternoon.
Wind, surge and rain risks
Forecasters warned that catastrophic wind and life-threatening storm surge are likely along portions of the west-central coast. Hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 25 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds up to 90 miles, a compact but intense core typical of eastern Pacific majors that can still deliver destructive surge where the coastline funnels water into bays.
Heavy rainfall is expected across southwestern Mexico through the weekend, with totals that could produce flash flooding and mudslides, especially in steep terrain. In its forecast discussion, the NHC noted uncertainty about how Mexico’s coastal mountains might weaken Simon before landfall — subsidence on the storm’s outer circulation could trim wind speeds even as the center nears shore — but emphasized that Simon remains a major hurricane threat regardless of small intensity wobbles Saturday night.
Context on the Pacific season
Simon is the latest in a busy 2026 eastern Pacific season that has already sent multiple systems toward Mexico. The storm’s rapid intensification and low central pressure put it in the upper tier of Category 4 strength; fluctuations are possible tonight, but the official forecast still calls for Simon to approach the coast as a major hurricane Sunday.
Residents and visitors in the warning area were urged to follow instructions from local emergency managers and Mexico’s national civil protection agency. The NHC said swells from Simon would affect portions of the southwestern and west-central Mexican coast through the weekend, creating life-threatening surf and rip currents even outside the strongest winds.