Treasurer Jim Chalmers declared that the next 12 months will be economically painful for incumbent governments everywhere, using a Canberra speech to argue Labor must answer cost-of-living frustration with reforms rather than dismiss voters drifting toward One Nation.
Battlelines before 2028
Addressing the Australia Institute on Tuesday, Chalmers acknowledged that global inflation, four domestic rate increases in 2026, and soaring fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict have shredded consumer confidence. He urged progressives not to “sneer” at supporters of Pauline Hanson, saying moral superiority is a poor substitute for economic credibility.
Gemma Walsh reports that the speech landed as Labor MPs returned to Parliament facing Resolve Strategic polling showing Labor’s primary vote at 29 percent, One Nation at 25 percent, and the Coalition at 23 percent—a split that still projects a Labor victory on preferences but leaves little room for complacency.
What Labor is selling
Chalmers tied the government’s agenda to tax changes, housing supply measures, and industrial relations reforms he said would lift living standards over time. He contrasted that with One Nation policies he argued would shrink superannuation balances, weaken wages, and blow out the budget through unfunded promises.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, speaking separately, said he remained focused on household cost pressures and getting inflation down without sacrificing growth. He declined to be rattled by “24-hour news cycle” speculation about an early election, reiterating that Australians will judge the government over the full parliamentary term.
Opposition and minor parties
One Nation’s leader used the same news cycle to attack Labor’s economic record and highlight recent policy reversals. Coalition figures have sought to wedge Labor on migration and energy, while trying to prevent further leakage of conservative voters to Hanson.
The political calendar now intersects with Reserve Bank minutes published Tuesday that leave open the possibility of another rate hike in November—an event that would dominate campaign coverage if an election were called early, and that shapes the mood regardless.
What happens next
Chalmers will hand down a mid-year budget update before Christmas, a document that will test whether the government can fund cost-of-living relief without enlarging the deficit. Labor’s strategists believe economic credibility is the antidote to populism; their opponents are betting that pain arrives faster than proof.
Opposition leader Peter Dutton has not yet responded line-by-line to the speech but Coalition MPs have amplified cost-of-living pain in question time, seeking to link Labor to higher mortgage repayments after the cash rate reached 4.60 percent. Crossbenchers in the Senate continue to negotiate housing and migration bills that Chalmers argued are central to rebuilding trust with middle-income voters who feel left behind by globalisation.