Republican House super PACs are pulling television and digital spending out of several competitive districts with three weeks left in the midterm campaign, redirecting millions of dollars toward a smaller set of races they still believe they can hold, according to party officials and spending trackers.
The shift amounts to a public admission that the party’s path to keeping the House majority is narrowing. Democrats, who already believed they had momentum in suburban and college-town seats, are now scrambling to raise money for candidates who looked like long shots when the year began.
Where the money is moving
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest House Republican super PAC, has canceled advertising in four battleground districts stretching from the Midwest to the East Coast while increasing investment in 16 other contests from Texas to Pennsylvania, officials familiar with the buys told the Associated Press.
Among the districts losing outside air cover is Iowa’s 1st, where three-term Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks is defending her seat against Democrat Christina Bohannan. The group is also stopping paid media in New Jersey’s 7th, where second-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean faces Democrat Rebecca Bennett after a four-month absence from Congress that he attributed to a mental health crisis upon his return.
Republican strategists said the super PAC would not keep spending in those seats, nor in an east-central Michigan district and a Cincinnati-area Ohio race that together accounted for more than $13 million in CLF outlays through Oct. 13 — roughly 12 percent of its total House investment this cycle.
A separate super PAC aligned with President Donald Trump is also cutting back in a competitive Las Vegas-area district, according to AP reporting, as the president’s approval ratings remain a drag in suburban House seats that flipped toward Democrats in 2018 and 2020.
Democrats see new openings
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee believes at least a dozen additional districts could be within striking distance if the party can fund late advertising, committee aides said. That list includes seats where Republican incumbents won comfortably two years ago but now trail or sit inside the margin of error in private polling.
Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, a Florida Republican who lost his seat in the 2018 wave, told POLITICO that no amount of late money could realistically save a House majority that has already eroded across Trump country. Senior House Republicans granted anonymity to discuss internal polling described continued weakness in rural and exurban districts that backed Trump in 2024.
Democratic donors have responded with six-figure online fundraising bursts tied to the canceled Republican buys, party operatives said, though it is unclear whether that cash can be converted into airtime before early voting ends in several states.
What it signals for Senate control
The House retreat comes as Republicans have already tempered expectations in Senate races, concentrating resources on holding seats in Texas and Nebraska while playing offense in a handful of Democratic-held states. Party leaders have privately discussed cutting off additional House candidates in the coming days so leftover funds can shore up Senate incumbents and gubernatorial races in the Sun Belt.
Trump, who has campaigned for House candidates in Pennsylvania and Arizona this month, has not publicly conceded the majority. White House aides said he would continue rallying in competitive districts, but acknowledged that outside groups — not the national party — are making the final spending calls on television.
With control of the House likely to come down to a handful of seats, both parties are preparing for recounts and litigation over ballot curing rules in Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York, states where mail voting could delay a final call for days after Election Day.