Early in-person and mail voting is running far ahead of the 2022 midterm pace in several states expected to decide U.S. Senate control, according to an Associated Press analysis published Thursday, two weeks before Election Day on November 4.
Mail versus in-person mix
AP’s comparison blended mail ballots returned and in-person early votes, so a surge in one channel can mask softness in another. Campaign operatives in North Carolina and Ohio track return rates by party registration where state law allows, but independents and low-propensity voters often decide close races and show up late.
Local races for governor and ballot measures still drive turnout in several of these states. Senate ads dominate television spending, yet county sheriff and school board contests can pull occasional voters who skip federal races — another reason raw early totals are an incomplete forecast.
Where turnout is jumping
The AP review compared ballot activity in competitive Senate states with 2022 benchmarks. Texas led the sample with early voting up 74%, while Kansas more than doubled its prior midterm pace. Maine, North Carolina and Ohio also posted increases above 30% in combined early in-person and mail participation.
High early turnout does not predict a winner — parties can bank votes early and still lose Election Day — but it does signal that both coalitions expect every ballot to matter in races that could flip the chamber. Control of the Senate shapes judicial confirmations, tax legislation, and oversight of agencies that write rules on health coverage, energy prices, and consumer finance.
What voters say they want Congress to tackle
A separate AP-NORC survey highlighted in the same Morning Wire briefing found voters ranking kitchen-table costs and Middle East conflict among top priorities for the next Congress. That pairing matters for incumbents defending seats in states where gas prices rose this week on Iran-related oil moves and where employer health premiums climbed again in annual surveys.
Candidates in Texas and Kansas have framed the election around inflation, housing payments, and border security; in Maine and Ohio, messaging also tracks Medicare costs and manufacturing jobs. Early voting data gives campaigns a partial read on which precincts are activating, but public polls still show several races within a few points.
Calendar stakes for voters
States set different deadlines for mail-ballot requests and early in-person windows. North Carolina and Ohio voters who plan to mail ballots should confirm receipt deadlines posted by their secretary of state, because postmarked-on-Election-Day rules vary. Texas allows early in-person voting through local schedules published by county election offices; Kansas counties list hours on state election portals.
Same-day registration is not available in every battleground. If you moved since 2024, update registration before your state’s cutoff — many early voters discovered mismatched addresses only after standing in line in prior cycles.
Why Senate control is the wallet story
A one-seat shift changes which committees mark up tax credits for child care, which leadership confirms Federal Reserve governors, and whether a president’s agency nominees face slow-walk or swift votes. None of that replaces local ballot measures on bonds or governors’ races, but the AP turnout spike suggests voters understand the Senate map this year is nationalized.
Mail versus in-person mix
AP’s comparison blended mail ballots returned and in-person early votes, so a surge in one channel can mask softness in another. Campaign operatives in North Carolina and Ohio track return rates by party registration where state law allows, but independents and low-propensity voters often decide close races and show up late.
Local races for governor and ballot measures still drive turnout in several of these states. Senate ads dominate television spending, yet county sheriff and school board contests can pull occasional voters who skip federal races — another reason raw early totals are an incomplete forecast.
What we are not claiming
Early vote totals are not official results, and party registration breakdowns of returned mail ballots can mislead when independents split late. The actionable read for Thursday is procedural: if you live in a listed battleground and planned to vote on November 4 only, check whether your county’s early window closes this weekend — lines are shorter now than they may be on the final Tuesday.