Reserve Bank assistant governor Sarah Hunter told a Sydney forum that artificial intelligence is starting to show up in Australian hiring data, with weaker job-ad growth in occupations exposed to automation while trades and frontline services remain comparatively resilient.
Hunter's speech, delivered on Monday alongside the November Statement on Monetary Policy, linked the technology boom to both inflation and labour-market segmentation. Near term, she said data-centre construction and semiconductor supply chains are adding demand pressure in an economy the RBA believes is still running slightly above capacity. Over a longer horizon, AI's effect on prices is likely neutral, similar to past general-purpose technologies, but the transition may reshuffle which occupations expand.
What the data show so far
The RBA's internal tracking of job advertisements containing AI-related keywords has surged since consumer chatbots went mainstream, yet aggregate productivity statistics have barely moved. Hunter cited tentative signs of weaker hiring outcomes in roles with high exposure to language models — clerical, routine analytics and some customer-service functions — while healthcare, trades and personal services continue to post solid vacancy rates. Youth labour-market indicators are especially sensitive because entry-level white-collar roles are often the first exposed to automation tools.
That divergence matters for monetary policy. If AI trims headcount only in pockets, the unemployment rate might rise unevenly across states, complicating the bank's single national forecast. Hunter stressed there is "limited evidence" of widespread job destruction so far, aligning with ABS figures that still show unemployment near 4.3 per cent, albeit projected to drift higher as rate hikes work through.
Inflation channel
On prices, Hunter highlighted two AI pathways. Electronics with small CPI weights — consoles, premium phones — are rising quickly because of chip supply bottlenecks. More materially, liaison contacts report data-centre builds competing for electricians and HVAC contractors already stretched by housing construction. Those pressures feed the RBA's revised inflation profile, which has headline CPI at 4.5 per cent by December before easing toward the band in 2027.
She argued supply will eventually catch up as server farms and fabrication plants expand, dissipating the initial inflation impulse. If productivity gains materialise, economies could produce more with the same inputs, offsetting demand effects. Until then, the board has raised the cash rate five times in 2026 to 4.85 per cent, citing oil shocks and domestic capacity limits as well as technology investment.
Financial stability angle
Hunter also warned that financial markets could reprice AI-related assets abruptly if earnings fail to meet exuberant forecasts, a risk for superannuation funds with concentrated tech exposure. Domestically, that interacts with labour shifts: households depending on white-collar income may face greater uncertainty than tradies benefiting from infrastructure spend.
For policymakers outside the RBA, the speech reinforces why skills and migration settings are back in focus. The federal government is debating duty-of-care rules for digital platforms while simultaneously courting data-centre investment. Hunter's message is that the two stories connect in the labour market: Australia may need more construction and maintenance skills even as it automates office tasks. Businesses planning 2027 budgets should map both sides — capex for AI tools and contingency for wage pressure in scarce trades.