Typhoon Dujuan’s forecast track bent away from Taiwan on Sunday as the Central Weather Administration said the storm would turn north, then northeast, and draw closest to waters off Japan’s Kanto region on Monday. Forecaster Lai Hsin-kuo told CNA that Taiwan should not expect a direct typhoon hit; instead, windward slopes, afternoon convection, and mountain corridors will carry the week’s weather risk while Dujuan feeds rain and wind into eastern Honshu.
Distance and the turn
CWA upgraded Dujuan to a moderate typhoon at 2 p.m. on Friday when its center sat about 1,780 kilometers east of Taipei, still moving northwest. That distance matters for harbor planners in Keelung and fishers working the Yilan coast: no landfall cone intersects Taiwan’s main island in the agency’s latest track. What changes Sunday is steering—Dujuan begins a gradual northward hook, then accelerates northeast as it rounds the western Pacific ridge. By Monday, model consensus places the system nearest open water south of Kanto, where Tokyo Bay terminals and Chiba’s industrial belt would see swell and squall bands rather than anything Taiwan’s east-facing counties must absorb.
What Taiwan sees this week
Lai told reporter Huang Chiao-wen that the week ahead stays in a familiar post-summer pattern: no strong cold high, but a large day-night temperature swing. Sunday brings more northerly flow. Scattered showers are likely from Taoyuan northward, while southern plains may see heavier afternoon cells. Central-north mountains and the Hualien–Taitung ranges also pick up isolated showers as moist air rides terrain.
From Monday through Tuesday, northeasterly winds strengthen along the Keelung north coast and Yilan, keeping fishing ports busy with tie-down checks rather than full closures. Southern mountains again see heavier afternoon rain; early-morning sprinkles can dust Pingtung vegetable plots before the sun reheats greenhouses. Wednesday through Friday turns the flow more easterly, spreading light rain along the Keelung north coast, the east, and the Hengchun Peninsula, with afternoon showers returning to south and central-north highlands.
Heat on the lee side
Absence of a typhoon does not mean comfortable afternoons. Highs along the north and east should hold near 29 to 31 degrees Celsius, while south-central cities—including Kaohsiung industrial districts and Chiayi farm towns—can reach 32 to 34 degrees. Overnight radiative cooling has already pulled some basin lows toward 22 degrees in the north, with lows elsewhere mostly 24 to 26. Construction crews scheduling concrete pours on Taoyuan’s expanding rail yards and orchard workers thinning fruit in Tainan will feel that contrast: dry mornings, steamy late shifts, and sweat-heavy gear by midafternoon.
Japan’s line Monday
CWA’s messaging aligns with Japanese agency outlooks that Dujuan’s closest approach to Kanto waters arrives Monday, with ripple effects into Tohoku. For Taiwan, the operational takeaway is indirect: ferry operators watching Okinawa routes and airlines routing long-haul connections through Narita monitor cross-basin timing, but domestic emergency managers are not staging typhoon shelter openings. Reservoir engineers in Shihmen and Zengwen still watch mountain shower totals because sustained afternoon cells can nudge sediment loads even without a named storm overhead.
Forecasters stressed that small shifts in the ridge could adjust Dujuan’s recurvature timing, yet the agency’s public line remains that Taiwan faces routine September humidity and terrain-driven rain—not a direct strike. Residents from Taipei’s river parks to Kenting’s reef guides should plan for umbrellas on windward afternoons, sunscreen on leeward ones, and a storm that will make headlines in Yokohama before it ever threatens to cross Hualien’s coastal highway.
