The Land Transport Authority released the November-January vehicle quota on Thursday, offering 12,847 Category A certificates for smaller cars and lower-power electric vehicles, an 8.2 percent increase from the August-October block that just ended.
What changes for buyers
Category B supply rises to 11,203 certificates, while commercial vehicle pools tick up modestly. Open Category E holds at 1,336 certificates per month, still the pressure valve when Categories A and B exhaust their bids. LTA said the expansion reflects vehicles deregistering as COEs expire and the continued unwind of the 10-year quota cycle peak around 2026. Dealers read the numbers as relief after three record-breaking tenders, though they warn that January’s cut to EV and hybrid rebates could pull forward demand in the next two exercises.
Rebate step-down on the horizon
From January 2026, the Additional Registration Fee rebate for fully electric cars falls by up to $10,000 and hybrid incentives narrow, a shift LTA announced in September to normalise after early adoption targets were met. Showrooms along Leng Kee Road reported weekend crowds asking whether to register in December at current rebate levels or wait for softer COE premiums later. Financial advisers caution that total upfront cost equals COE plus OMV minus rebates; a cheaper certificate with a smaller rebate can still mean a higher out-of-pocket cheque.
First tender timing
The first November tender opens in two weeks, after the usual one-week gap following quota publication. Motor traders upload provisional bids electronically; unsuccessful bids roll forward unless withdrawn. Motorcycle Category D supply remains tight, a separate headache for delivery riders, but household budgets focus on Categories A and B where premiums still sit above $120,000 for mainstream cars despite last week’s dip.
Private-hire and fleet angle
Rental fleets watch Category E closely because open certificates can register cars that would otherwise compete in Category A. LTA has resisted moving private-hire cars entirely to Category E, but ride-hailing operators still account for a visible share of winning bids. Any fleet manager delaying replacement now faces higher per-kilometre costs if COE rebounds while fuel and insurance also rise.
Household maths
For a typical buyer financing over seven years, a $5,000 swing in COE premium changes monthly instalments by roughly $70 before interest. The quota publication does not set prices; it only sets how many certificates exist. Still, more supply tilts probability toward softer premiums if demand does not spike on rebate fears. Households stretching for a first car should model December registration against January rebate loss, not just the headline certificate count LTA printed on Thursday morning.