The India Meteorological Department said conditions may become favorable for a circulation over the Andaman Sea around 13 October, with a low-pressure area possible shortly afterward, even as its monthly outlook keeps October rainfall below normal for most of the country.
In its 1 October extended range forecast, the agency said the southwest monsoon should retreat from remaining northwest and central pockets during the first week of October, while northeast India sees isolated heavy spells along the retreating trough. A separate seasonal note pegged nationwide October rain at less than 85 percent of the long-period average.
Withdrawal timeline
Monsoon withdrawal began from west Rajasthan on 19 September, two days later than the climatological norm. By 23 September the line had pushed through Delhi and much of Punjab and Haryana. Forecasters now expect the boundary to slip southward along the peninsula during the second week of October as dry westerly winds strengthen.
Western disturbances are also expected to brush northwest India during the first two weeks, bringing light snow to higher Himalayas and scattered showers to Punjab—useful for rabi planting but insufficient to erase the October deficit signal.
Heat and El Niño backdrop
IMD’s 30 September climate summary noted strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole values, a combination associated with variable post-monsoon rain over southern states. Above-normal maximum temperatures are likely across much of India in October, which can stress soil moisture for farmers sowing wheat and mustard.
Local planning
Disaster managers in Visakhapatnam and Chennai said they are pre-positioning pumps along low-lying roads ahead of the possible Bay system, mindful that even a depression can drop heavy rain in 24 hours after a dry spell. Hydroelectric operators in the Western Ghats watch retreat timing closely because late monsoon showers affect reservoir carryover into winter.
For urban residents, the immediate takeaway is dual: carry umbrellas for pop-up thunderstorms along the retreat line, but do not expect a cool, wet October average. IMD will update the Bay threat as satellite loops confirm whether the mid-month circulation strengthens or shears apart in dry air.
Agromet units in Nagpur and Hyderabad are issuing district bulletins for soybean and cotton growers, noting that a dry October can accelerate crop maturity but also raise irrigation costs where borewells already run overtime after a variable monsoon season.